What is the Fortune Telling Cognitive Distortion?
Fortune telling is a type of cognitive distortion where people habitually predict negative outcomes without good evidence. This distorted way of thinking is responsible for anxiety, depression, and chronic worry, and is a frequent treatment target in cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Instead of making informed predictions based on realistic data, a person engaging in fortune telling assumes the worst will happen—and treats that assumption as fact.
Why We Predict the Future—and When It Becomes a Problem
As human beings, we rely heavily on our ability to anticipate outcomes. This kind of prediction is often necessary and adaptive. For example, if we drink sour, expired milk, we reasonably expect to get sick. When we board a flight to San Francisco, we expect to land in San Francisco. These are rational predictions based on past experiences and a sound understanding of how the world works.
The problem arises when our future predictions become skewed by fear or insecurity, and we start assuming failure, rejection, or disaster—even when there’s no clear evidence to support that conclusion. That’s when normal forecasting turns into fortune telling: a cognitive distortion that overestimates negative possibilities and underestimates realistic or neutral outcomes.
Examples of Fortune Telling
Consider the thought: “I’m not going to get the job.” On the surface, this might seem like a harmless prediction, but let’s dig a little deeper.
Yes, you may have a sense of how the interview went—but do you know how your qualifications compare to other applicants? Do you know their experience, interpersonal style, salary requirements, or alignment with the company’s values? Most of the time, we don’t have access to these details. So when we tell ourselves we’re certain not to be selected, we’re not thinking objectively—we’re engaging in fortune telling.
This pattern of thinking robs us of emotional stability and increases anticipatory anxiety, self-doubt, and feelings of hopelessness.
Why Fortune Telling Is So Harmful
The danger of fortune telling lies in how convincing it feels. When we're stressed or anxious, our brains naturally seek certainty—even if that certainty is negative. By assuming failure before anything actually happens, we prevent ourselves from feeling hopeful or motivated, and we may even unconsciously sabotage opportunities.
Over time, this pessimistic prediction habit can damage confidence, increase avoidance behaviors, and intensify symptoms of depression and anxiety.
Cognitive Restructuring for Fortune Telling
Below are some different ways of thinking about fortune telling when you recognize it in your own mind:
What is the evidence for and against your prediction? It is important to examine the actual evidence and, even more importantly, the quality of that evidence. We may be able to come up with lots of reasons that support the fortune telling if we feel particularly bad about it, but would this evidence hold up in court? And consider why it would not be as convincing to someone else.
Examine the function of your worry. Are there benefits to making a negative prediction? Does it prepare you for a difficult task? How about costs? Does your prediction instead make you feel powerless or demoralized? Overly anxious? Given the cost-benefit analysis, is your fortune-telling more helpful or harmful?
Consider your track record for making similar predictions. In similar situations, what kinds of predictions have you made, and how do the situations actually turn out? How might your track record inform the prediction you’re making now?
How difficult would it be for your predicted outcome to occur? What are all of the things that would have to go wrong for this prediction to come true? Now, list as many things that might happen that would prevent this prediction from happening. Then, list the things you have control over that you could use to influence the situation in your favor.
Are there equally plausible possible outcomes? Find three positive outcomes, and write out how these other outcomes might actually occur.
After considering these different perspectives, you may not believe the fortune telling as much. By continually spotting fortune telling when it arises and by finding more effective ways of making sense of unknown future situations, you will believe these dire predictions less and less, helping you to feel more confident about the future.
To learn more about fortune telling and cognitive restructuring, or to find out if working with a cognitive-behavioral therapist is the right next step for you, click on the links below.